Effects of climatic and price uncertainty on the value of legume crops in a Mediterranean-type environment |
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| Institution: | 1. Instituto Tecnológico de Celaya, Departamento de Ingeniería Química, Celaya, Gto., 38010, México;2. Universidad Michoacana de san Nicolás de Hidalgo, Facultad de Ingeniería Química, Morelia, Mich., 58000, México;1. Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Chemical Engineering Department, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil;2. Universität Hohenheim, FG Prozessanalytik und Getreidewissenschaft, Institut für Lebensmittelwissenschaft und Biotechnologie, Stuttgart, Germany;1. Department of Geological Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712, USA;2. Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, Austin, Texas 78753, USA |
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| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of price and yield uncertainty on the value of new legumes and their place in a Mediterranean region of Western Australia. It uses the stochastic bioeconomic farming system Model of an Uncertain Dryland Agricultural System (MUDAS) to integrate climatic, agronomic and economic information. A robust finding is that chick peas in rotation with wheat on some clayey loam soil classes are a profitable addition to optimal farm plans, increasing the certainty equivalence of profit on a typical farm by 7%. By contrast, modelling results for field peas and faba beans suggest they are likely to form a minor role in the farming system, being occasionally selected under certain price and weather-year conditions. Modelling results highlight a farmer's attitude to risk and the proportion of the farm area with suitable soils as important determinants of the role and value of the new legumes in the farming system. These findings, if supported by further investigations, have important implications for breeding and agronomic research. © |
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