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| 应用马尔可夫链预测华山松木蠹象发生趋势 | |
| 引用本文： | 李任波,刘菊华,罗正方,王莹,李永和,谢开立.应用马尔可夫链预测华山松木蠹象发生趋势[J].西南林学院学报,2005,25(2):50-52. |
| 作者姓名： | 李任波 刘菊华 罗正方 王莹 李永和 谢开立 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西南林学院,基础部,云南,昆明,650224 2. 西南林学院,保护生物学学院,云南,昆明,650224 3. 会泽县国营者海林场,云南,会泽,654211 |
| 基金项目： | 国家林业局天然林保护工程(204208)，云南省“十五”攻关项目(203211)资助. |
| 摘 要： | 依据会泽县国营者海林场1993~2003年华山松木蠹象发生面积,应用马尔可夫链,预测2004年华山松木蠹象发生量和发生趋势,与2004年实际情况相比较,以验证马尔可夫链在实际应用中的可靠性. |
| 关 键 词： | 马尔可夫链 预测预报 华山松木蠹象 发生趋势 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-7179（2005）02-0050-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-03-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-03-04 |
Occurrence Forecast of Pissodes puctatus by Markov Chain Theory |
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| LI Ren-bo,LIU Ju-hua,LUO Zheng-fang,WANG Ying,LI Yong-he,XIE Kai-li.Occurrence Forecast of Pissodes puctatus by Markov Chain Theory[J].Journal of Southwest Forestry College,2005,25(2):50-52. | |
| Authors: | LI Ren-bo LIU Ju-hua LUO Zheng-fang WANG Ying LI Yong-he XIE Kai-li |
| Abstract: | The occurrence tendency of Pissodes puctatus on Zhehai State Forest Farm in Huize County, Yunnan Province in 2004 was forecast based on the occurrence areas of Pissodes puctatus recorded on the farm during the years from 1993 to 2003 by means of Markov chain theory. The reliability of the forecast method and the precision of the forecast were verified with the actual situation of the pest occurrence in the year of 2004. |
| Keywords: | Markov chain forecast Pissodes puctatus occurrence tendency |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |