基于CA-Markov模型的重庆市酉阳县土地利用变化研究

为揭示县域土地利用变化情况，以2014年为基期年，以重庆市酉阳县为研究区，在分析研究区土地利用现状及其影响因素的基础上，采用CA-Markov模型模拟了酉阳县2020年土地利用情况。结果显示，影响土地利用的因素包括自然因素和人文因素两方面；2020年研究区耕地面积呈下降趋势，林地面积有所增加，草地和水域面积变化不明显；建设用地继续保持增长；未利用地面积略有减少。空间上，研究区城区范围呈东南至西北方向扩展，建设用地不断增加是由于经济社会发展需要占用大量土地导致。 

Research of Land Use Change Based on CA-Markov Model in Youyang County of Chongqing City

To reveal the county land use changes，as Youyang county of study area，it was been simulated that land use situation in 2020 basis on the CA-Markov model to Youyang county，and present situation and influencing factors of land use in the study area were analyzed in 2014.Results showed that influencing factors of land use were included both natural and human factors.Cultivated land area would be downward trend in the study area in 2020，and woodland area would be increasing，but grassland and water area would be not change obvious，the unused land area would be decreased slightly.In the space，study area of city scale would be development in northwest-southeast direction.Increase of construction land was due to towns as the center to expanding urbanization construction covers an area of around.