感知价值及政策规制对农户有机肥替代化肥意愿与行为一致性的影响

为推进农户有机肥替代化肥意愿转化为行动，促进我国化肥减施政策实施，本研究构建了农户有机肥替代化肥意愿与行为一致性的理论分析框架，基于山东省16地市404份调查问卷，运用Logit和Probit模型，从感知价值、政策规制探究了农户有机肥替代化肥意愿与行为一致性，基于政策规制和感知价值的交互效应以及有机肥替代试点参与意愿中介效应做了进一步分析。结果表明:感知经济价值、感知生态价值及激励性政策规制能够显著正向影响农户有机肥替代化肥意愿与行为一致性；政策规制在感知价值对农户有机肥替代化肥意愿与行为一致性的影响中起到一定的调节作用；有机肥替代试点参与意愿在感知经济价值对农户有机肥替代化肥意愿与行为一致性的影响中起到遮掩作用，在感知生态价值对农户有机肥替代化肥意愿与行为一致性的影响中起到部分中介作用。因此，在有机肥替代化肥的推广过程中，可以通过激励政策提高农户的感知价值水平，进而促进农户将有机肥替代化肥意愿付诸行动；在实施惩罚政策的过程中应注意力度，切忌过度的惩罚政策让农户出现逆反心理，反而出现抑制作用。

Effects of perceived value and policy regulation on farmers'' willingness and behavior consistency of organic fertilizer to replace chemical fertilizer

In order to promote the transformation of farmers'' willingness to replace chemical fertilizer with organic fertilizer into action and promote the implementation of China''s chemical fertilizer reduction policy, this study constructs a theoretical analysis framework for the consistency of farmers'' willingness and behavior of organic fertilizer to replace chemical fertilizer, and explores the consistency of farmers'' willingness and behavior of organic fertilizer to replace chemical fertilizer from the perspective of perceived value and policy regulation based on 404 questionnaires in 16 cities in Shandong Province. Based on the interaction effect of policy regulation and perceived value and the mediating effect of willingness to participate in organic fertilizer substitution pilots, further analysis was conducted. The results show that: The perceived economic value, perceived ecological value and incentive policy regulation can significantly positively affect the willingness and behavior consistency of farmers to replace chemical fertilizer with organic fertilizer. Policy regulation plays a certain role in regulating the influence of perceived value on farmers'' willingness and behavior consistency of organic fertilizer to replace chemical fertilizer. The willingness to participate in the organic fertilizer substitution pilot plays a covering role in the influence of perceived economic value on the willingness and behavior consistency of farmers to replace chemical fertilizer with organic fertilizer, and plays a part-mediating role in the influence of perceived ecological value on the willingness and behavior consistency of organic fertilizer to replace chemical fertilizer. Therefore, in the process of promoting the replacement of organic fertilizer with chemical fertilizer, the perceived value level of farmers is improved through incentive policies, which promotes farmers'' willingness to replace chemical fertilizer with organic fertilizer. In the process of implementing the punishment policy, attention should be paid to avoid excessive punishment policy that causes farmers to have a rebellious mentality and would cause a repressive effect instead.