| 杨树溃疡病测报方法的初步研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 阳传和 杨旺. 杨树溃疡病测报方法的初步研究[J]. 林业科学, 1992, 28(2): 122-127 |
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| 作者姓名： | 阳传和 杨旺 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京林业大学，北京林业大学，北京林业大学 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“七·五”科技攻关专题 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据杨树溃疡病的发生规律,在测报期间内,病情指数(Dis)与相应时期的菌量(F_1、F_2、F_3)、积温(CT)、温湿比(TH)、温雨比(TR)及湿雨比(HR)有着密切的相关关系。应用多元统计方法建立的多元线性回归预测模型:Dis=19.0-2.8(F_3)~(1/2)+0.1F_1+0.0015(F_2)~3+4.15TH-0.042(CT)~(1/2)-0.4HR+3.5TR,可以预测一个月后的发病情况,模型经实际病情验证,有较高的准确性。
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| 关 键 词： | 杨树 溃疡病 预测 |
A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON PREDICTION METHOD FOR POPLAR CANKER |
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| Yang Chuanhe. A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON PREDICTION METHOD FOR POPLAR CANKER[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 1992, 28(2): 122-127 |
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| Authors: | Yang Chuanhe |
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| Abstract: | According to the rules of development of poplar canker, caused by Dothiorella gregaria Sacc., the multivariant linear stepwise regression prediction model was established using method of multivatiant statistics with factors as disease index (Dis), pathogens (F_1, F_2, F_3), collect temperature(CT), ratio of temperature to relative humidity (TH), ratio of temperature to raina ll(TR) and ratio of relative humidity to rainfall (HR):Dis=19.0-F_3~(1/2.8)+0.1F_1+0.0015(F_2)~3+4.15TH-CT~(1/0.042)-0.4HR+1.5TR.The disease index of the following a month could be predicted with this equation what was proved to be reliable by examination using actual disease index obtained in the survey. |
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| Keywords: | Poplar canker Forecast Multivariant linear stepwise model |
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