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| 基于趋势面模拟的区域农业需水量预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 李稳,曲艺,张凤娥,董良飞,宋伟. 基于趋势面模拟的区域农业需水量预测[J]. 节水灌溉, 2012, 0(1): 51-52,56 |
| 作者姓名： | 李稳 曲艺 张凤娥 董良飞 宋伟 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 常州大学环境与安全工程学院,江苏常州,213164 2. 山西建筑职业技术学院设备工程系,山西太原,030001 3. 江南大学环境与土木工程学院,江苏无锡,214122 |
| 摘 要： | 以山西省各城市2008年农业需水量为因变量，各市相应产量和播种面积为自变量，建立了农业需水量变化趋势面模型，比较了不同阶次趋势面模型的拟合程度，并绘制了趋势面和残差等值线图。经分析得出，趋势面分析方法可以用于分析相近区域农业需水量变化的总趋势，并可用已建立的趋势面模型对缺少农业用水量资料、但可获知产量和播种面积的附近区域进行农业需水量预测。 |
| 关 键 词： | 趋势面分析 农业需水量 用水量预测 |
Regional Agricultural Water Demand Analysis and Prediction Based on Trend Surface |
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| LI Wen,CAO Yi,ZHANG Feng-e,DONG Liang-fei,SONG Wei. Regional Agricultural Water Demand Analysis and Prediction Based on Trend Surface[J]. Water Saving Irrigation, 2012, 0(1): 51-52,56 | |
| Authors: | LI Wen CAO Yi ZHANG Feng-e DONG Liang-fei SONG Wei |
| Affiliation: | 1.Department of Environmental & Safety Engineering,Changzhou University,Jiangsu Changzhou 213164,China; 2.Equipment Engineering Department,Shanxi Architectural Technical College,Shanxi Taiyuan 030001,China; 3.Environmental & Civil Engineering,Jiangnan University,Jiangsu Wuxi 214122,China) |
| Abstract: | Using the agricultural water requirement of cities in 2008 in Shanxi Province as the dependent variable and each urban output and sown area as independent variables,a trend surface model of agricultural water requirement is established in this paper.Moreover,the fitting degree values of different order trend surface models are compared and the trend surface and residual contour map was drew.From the analysis result,it can be obtained that the trend surface analysis can be used to analyze the general trend of regional agricultural water requirement and the agricultural water requirement can be predicted by using the established trend surface model in nearby area where the information of the agricultural water is lack but the output and the sown area are known. |
| Keywords: | trend surface analysis agricultural water requirement water prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |