基于Markov链的吉林西部土地利用结构优化研究

土地利用结构优化是编制土地利用总体规划的基础和核心。以吉林省西部为例，在RS和GIS的支持下，运用Markov链对吉林西部土地利用结构进行优化研究。结果表明:到2020年，吉林西部的林地、建设用地、水田、旱地的面积持续增加，分别增加了153.44，227.05，1 479.79，80.29 km²；草地、水域、沙地、盐碱地、湿地有所减少，分别减少了1 569.44，493.35，60.07，1 029.82，389.71 km²。建设用地不断扩张，草地、湿地和水域面积不断退化是造成吉林省西部生态环境恶化的主要原因，建议今后要适当增加草地和林地比例，合理保护湿地和水域，限制建设用地盲目扩张，挖潜存量建设用地，提高建设用地的利用率，从而实现土地资源的可持续利用。

Land Use Structure Optimization Research Based on the Markov Chain in the West of Jilin Province

Optimization of land use structure is the foundation and core of general land use planning. West of Jilin Province was taken as an example to optimize the land use structure research for the west of Jilin Province under the support of RS and GIS technology, using the Markov chain. The results showed that forest land, construction land, paddy field, dry land area would increase in land use of eastern Jilin by 2020, increase 153.44, 227.05, 1 479.79, 80.29 km², respectively; but grassland, water area, sand, saline and alkaline land, wetland had decrease, partly reduce to 1 569.44, 493.35, 60.07, 1 029.82, 389.71 km², respectively. The conclusion indicated that construction land expanded constantly, the area of grassland, wetland and water area reduced constantly, which was the main reason for a deteriorating ecological environment in the west Jilin Province. It was suggested to increase appropriately grass and forest land scale, to protect wetland and water area reasonably, limit construction land expansion blindly, tap the stock of land for construction purposes, to improve the utilization rate of construction land in order to realize sustainable utilization of land resource in the future.