临夏地区马铃薯环腐病气候动态预测模式

温度、湿度和降水等气象要素是马铃薯环腐病发生的主要环境影响因子。为了探索临夏地区马铃薯环腐病和建立温、湿度引起发病的预测模型,利用临夏地区马铃薯种植资料和同期气象观测资料,通过相关因子诊断、数理统计和多元回归方法,分析临夏地区马铃薯环腐病不同发病阶段和发病区域气候条件以及对马铃薯产量及其构成因素的影响;把马铃薯环腐病划分为以临夏市为代表的半干旱区和以和政县为代表的阴湿气候区,从发病早期到晚期,划分为两个区域两个阶段,建立了临夏地区马铃薯环腐病发病区域不同发病阶段的预测模式。实现马铃薯环腐病气象预测;各预测模型的预测准确率达到73%以上,为临夏马铃薯推广栽培及病虫害预测提供了科学依据。

Climatic Dynamics Prediction Model of Potato Bacterial Ring Rot in Linxia Area

Meteorologica l factors,such as temperature,humidity and precipitation,are main factors causing potato bacterial ring rot.To explore the prediction model between potato bacterial ring rot and temperature and humidity in Linxia area,information of potato planting in Linxia and meteorological observation data in the same period were used to analyze different occurrence phases of potato bacterial ring rot and the climate conditions in diseased area.The effect on potato yield was also analyzed.Related factors diagnosis,mathematical statistics and multiple regression method were used during the analysis process.The diseased area of potato bacterial ring rot was divided into semiarid zone represented by Linxia City and wet climate zone represented by Hezhen County,and the symptom appearance phase was divided into early phase and later phase,through which potato bacterial ring rot was researched in the two zones and two phases.A prediction model was developed of different symptom appearance phases in dis eased area of Linxia,which achieves meteorological prediction of potato bacterial ring rot.The accuracy ratio of each prediction model was more than 73%,and the models provide a scientific basis for the promotion of potato cultivation and disease and pest prediction in Linxia.