基于VAR模型的蛋鸡产蛋性能及其影响因素分析

蛋鸡产蛋性能指标包括产蛋率和合格鸡蛋的平均蛋重,该性能受蛋鸡个体、饲养管理、养殖环境、疫病等诸多因素影响.研究各因素对产蛋性能的影响及其时延效果对蛋鸡养殖过程管理十分重要.将蛋鸡的采食、饮水、环境温度和湿度作为主要影响因素,建立向量自回归(vector auto-regressive,VAR)模型,实现了产蛋率的中短期...

Analysis of laying performance and influencing factors of laying hens based on VAR model

The laying performance indicators of laying hens include laying rate and average egg weight of qualified eggs. The laying performance of laying hens is affected by many factors such as the individual laying hens, feeding management, breeding environment, disease and other factors. It is very important to study the influence of various factors on laying performance and its time delay effect for laying hen breeding. A vector auto-regressive (VAR) model was established with laying hens’ feeding, drinking water, environmental temperature and humidity as the main influencing factors to realize the medium and short-term prediction of egg production rate. The prediction accuracy rate was 98.6%. Based on this model, the analysis showed that the environmental temperature had the greatest impact on the laying rate of laying hens and the impact lasted for 3-4 days and reached the peak on the first day. The food intake had the greatest impact on the average egg weight and the impact lasted for 4-5 days, also peaking on the first day.