中国2003—2019年农业供给质量评价与时空演变分析

基于对农业供给质量内涵的理解,从要素、效率、结构、绿色与效益5个维度构建农业供给质量评价指标体系,运用2003—2019年中国除港澳台外的农业发展数据,采用全局熵值法和莫兰指数(Moran’s Ⅰ),对中国的农业供给质量进行测度和时空分析。结果表明:2003—2019年,中国农业供给质量呈现明显的上升趋势。供给要素质量、供给效率质量、供给效益质量是近年来推动农业供给质量提升的主要因素,供给结构质量和供给绿色质量是制约农业供给质量进一步提升的短板。中国各区域的农业供给质量均呈上升趋势,但区域差异明显,呈现“东高西低”的特征,且东西差异不断扩大。中国农业供给质量具有显著的空间相关性,且局部区域具有较强的空间依赖性和空间稳定性。建议转变农业发展方式,调整农业结构,制定差异化的农业供给目标,加强区域农业交流合作,以促进农业供给质量的进一步提升。

Evaluation and spatiotemporal evolution of agricultural supply quality in China in 2003-2019

Based on the understanding of the connotation of agricultural supply quality, the evaluation index system of agricultural supply quality was constructed from five dimensions of factor, efficiency, structure, “green” and benefit. By using the agricultural development data of China (excluding of Hongkong, Macao, Taiwan) from 2003 to 2019, the agricultural supply quality in China was analyzed via the global entropy method and Moran’s I index. It was shown that there was an obvious upward trend of China’s agricultural supply quality. The quality of supply factor, supply efficiency and supply efficiency were the main driving forces of China’s agricultural supply quality in recent years, while the quality of supply structure and supply “green” were the short board. The agricultural supply quality in all regions of China exhibited an upward trend, with obvious regional differences as “high in the east and low in the west”, and the differences between the east and the west were expanding. China’s agricultural supply quality had significant spatial correlation, and some regions had strong spatial dependence and spatial stability. Therefore, it was suggested to change the agricultural development mode, adjust the agricultural structure, formulate differentiated agricultural supply objectives, strengthen regional agricultural exchanges and cooperation, to promote the further improvement of China’s agricultural supply quality.