1210号台风“达维”风暴潮分析与数值模拟

1210号台风“达维”是1949年以后登陆我国长江以北地区最强的台风,给江苏、山东、辽宁等省份带来了较大的损失.在此分析了“达维”台风的过程和风暴增水情况,利用ADCIRC台风风暴潮预报模式对此次过程进行了模拟,并分析了模拟效果.结果表明,台风过程最大增水对应的时间不一定就是天文高潮;台风风暴潮数值预报系统对1210号台风“达维”的风暴潮过程的预报情况与观测结果比较吻合,可见该台风风暴潮数值预报系统对此类强度较强且登陆江苏沿海的台风过程的增水过程描述准确,对江苏沿海台风风暴潮的预报预警有非常重要的参考价值.

Analysis and Numerical Simulation of the Storm Surge Caused by Typhoon No.1210 "Damrey"

No.1210 typhoon ＂Damrey＂ is the strongest typhoon landing in north of Yangtze River after 1949,it has caused a big loss of Jiangsu,Shandong,Liaoning and other provinces.This paper attempts to analyze the process of the typhoon and the characteristics of storm surge based on the data from the marine stations of Jiangsu.Moreover,ADCIRC,the typhoon storm surge prediction model is used to simulate the surge values,and the results are evaluated.The results showed that the corresponding time of the largest water increasing during typhoon process is not necessarily the astronomical tide ; the forecasting situation is similar with the observation results,indicating that the numerical prediction system can accurately describe water increasing process of the strong and landing in Jiangsu coastal area typhoon,which has an important reference value for forecasting typhoon storm surge in coastal area of Jiangsu Province.