基于综合权重灰色关联分析法的千鹤湖生态安全评价

【目的】评价千鹤湖生态安全状况,有针对性地提出应对措施。【方法】基于"驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应"(DPSIR)模型构建评价指标体系,采用专家打分法和熵值法相结合计算综合权重,利用灰色关联分析方法计算千鹤湖生态安全的关联度,以此对千鹤湖生态安全状况进行评估。【结果】社会经济影响层处于Ⅰ级,水生态健康层处于Ⅳ级,服务功能层和管理调控层均处于Ⅲ级,综合判断千鹤湖库区的安全生态状况所属的安全级别为Ⅲ级;针对45项评价指标,计算Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ、Ⅴ级对方案层的贡献率,分别为2.05%、38.66%、34.19%、2.88%和22.22%;千鹤湖总体生态安全状况最重要的影响因素是长效管理机制构建,制约4个准则层生态安全的关键因素分别是单位面积点源COD负荷、综合营养指数、集中饮用水水质达标率和长效管理机制构建。【结论】千鹤湖生态安全处于一般级别,应加强对千鹤湖水生态健康层的保护,建立千鹤湖生态安全长效管理机制。

Assessing the Ecological Health of Qianhe Lake Using Grey Correlation Analysis Method

【Objective】Keeping catchment ecology healthy is a critical criterion in developing sustainable ecosystems, and this paper presents an grey correlation method to analyze the ecological health of Qianhe Lake.【Method】The research was based on baseline-survey of water ecology, water environment and social economy in the basin, and the ecological security of the lake was evaluated using the comprehensively-weighed grey correlation analysis model.【Result】Social and economic impact layer was at level Ⅰ, water ecological health layer was at level Ⅳ, and service function layer and the management control layer were at level Ⅲ. The overall ecological health of the lake was at level Ⅲ. For all 45 factors we analyzed, those at levelⅠ, Ⅱ, Ⅲ, Ⅳ and Ⅴ contributed to the overall ecological health by 2.05%, 38.66%, 34.19%, 2.88% and 22.22%, respectively. The main factors affecting the ecological security was social economic layer, while the water ecological health layer, service functions layer and management control layer were affected by point-source COD load per unit area, comprehensive nutrition index, the rate of compliance to centralized drinking water quality, and construction of long-acting management mechanism, respectively.【Conclusion】The ecological health of the Qianhe lake is at general-security level, and its future improvement should focus on protecting the ecological health layer and establishing a longterm management system.