基于投影寻踪模型的榆林市水资源承载能力研究

【目的】评价榆林市水资源承载能力。【方法】从榆林市水资源基本特点和现状出发,构建了包含水资源系统、人口子系统、社会经济系统和生态系统的指标评价体系。利用粒子群优化算法投影寻踪模型,对榆林市2013—2015年的水资源承载能力水平进行了评价和比较分析,并在此基础上挑选出对水资源承载能力影响较大7个指标作为调控对象,对全市未来水资源承载能力进行了预测。【结果】2013—2015年榆林市水资源承载能力为一般水平,3 a来,榆林市各县区水资源承载能力均有所下降,其中神木县承载能力下降最快,由一般转变为弱。【结论】通过对用水指标调控发现,要解决榆林市的缺水问题,调整工业结构,提高工业水重复利用率,加大农田节水力度、优化种植结构十分必要。此外,必须考虑黄河引水工程,才能提高榆林市未来水资源承载能力。

The Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Yulin Studied Using the Projection Pursuit Method

【Objective】The availability of water resource is the determinant of economy in a region and the objective of this paper is to present a method to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resource in Yulin, Shanxi province.【Method】The proposed method was based on the project pursuit model which includes a water resource module, an economic module, a social module and an ecological module. We evaluated and compared the water resources carrying capacity of Yulin from 2013 to 2015 using the PSO projection pursuit model, from which seven contributive indexes were selected as a control object to predict the water resource carrying capacity in the future.【Result】The water resource carrying capacity in the region was moderate from 2013 to 2015, but was in decline with Shenmu Country deteriorating most changing from moderate level to weak level during the three-year period.【Conclusion】Calculation using the proposed model indicated that restructuring the industry, improving water reuse, implementing water-saving agriculture and optimizing crop variety is the way to resolve the declining water resources carrying capacity in this region. In addition, building a canal to divert water from the Yellow River is also an option to mitigate dwindling water resource.