海峡两岸水产品对东盟市场出口增长的影响因素及合作对策

利用1996—2014年中国大陆与中国台湾地区水产品出口贸易数据,采用恒定市场份额模型对海峡两岸水产品对东盟市场出口增长的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:1)两岸水产品对东盟市场出口增长受到国际市场贸易政策变化的影响。2)东盟市场需求增长是两岸对东盟市场出口增长的主要原因。3)中国大陆对东盟市场总体竞争效应不断增强,但在需求量较大的市场其竞争力提升较慢;中国台湾水产品在东盟市场的竞争力不断增强,但受困于自身渔业发展瓶颈,近年来竞争效应的比重有所下降。4)随着市场的融合,两岸水产品出口与东盟水产品进口需求的匹配度越来越高。针对两岸在东盟市场出口增长的影响因素,本研究提出二者在东盟市场渔业合作的对策建议:力求出口与需求相匹配,加强两岸渔业领域的深层次合作,两岸合作共同投资开发东盟市场,开展差异性的营销策略。

Analysis of effectors on aquatic product exportation change from Chinese mainland and Taiwan area to ASEAN and the cooperative game

The effectors on aquatic product exportation change from Chinese mainland and Taiwan area to ASEAN are analyzed by using trade data from 1996-2014 and market share model (CMS).The results show that:1) The trade policy in international market plays an important role on exportation change from Chinese mainland and Taiwan area to ASEAN;2) Market demand growth in ASEAN is the main reason of export growth from Chinese mainland and Taiwan area to ASEAN;3)The aquatic product competitive effects of Chinese mainland in ASEAN market keep growing,but growing slowly in great demand markets;Although Taiwan aquatic product competitiveness in ASEAN is increasing,its competition effects is declining in the proportion in recent years because of internal industry issues;4) Along with the market integration,there is more and more high degree of matching between ASEAN aquatic product importation and both sides exportation.In addition,policy recommendations to strengthen fisheries cooperation between Chinese mainland and Taiwan area under the background of "The Belt and Road Initiative",such as matching export and demand,strengthening cross-strait cooperation in the field of fisheries,investing the ASEAN market jointly,and using different marketing strategies in different markets are put forwarded in this study.