西安市耕地动态变化与社会经济发展的关系

利用西安市1989-2003年的统计资料,分析西安市耕地动态变化过程,并选取人均GDP、社会固定资产投资、总人口、城市化率、第三产业比重等社会经济指标,定量分析社会经济的发展对耕地面积变化的影响过程.结果显示:西安市耕地面积在这一时期内总体上呈减少的趋势,依靠现有耕地资源已不能保障西安市的粮食安全,社会经济的持续快速发展是这一时段内耕地面积减少的主要因素,但是影响程度正在逐渐降低.

Study on the Correlation between the Dynamic Change of Cultivated Lands and the Social-economic Development in Xi'an City during the Period of 1989-2003

In this paper,the dynamic change of the area of cultivated lands in Xi'an City is analyzed using the statistical data of Xi'an City during the period of 1989-2003.A correlation analysis on the selected 5 social and economic indices including the per capita GDP,investment of fixed assets,population,urbanization rate and proportion of tertiary industry is carried out so as to quantitatively analyze the relationships between the change of the area of cultivated lands and the social and economic development.The results show that the area of cultivated lands in Xi'an City was gradually reduced during the whole investigated period from 1989 to 2003,particularly the per capita area of cultivated lands was continuously decreased with the economic development,population growth, enlargement of urban area and construction of infrastructure.However,the cultivated lands in certain area in Xi'an City have to be used for satisfying the land demand of social and economic development in the future.Therefore,it is considered that the safety of food supply in the future cannot be ensured by relying on the current cultivated lands.However,the impact of social and economic development on the reduction of the area of cultivated lands will be gradually decreased with the change of economic development pattern,effective population control,and perfection and effective implementation of the management system of cultivated lands.