昆明市耕地变化特征及驱动机制研究

为分析驱动因子对昆明市耕地变化的影响，根据2000—2010年耕地数量逐年递减，建设用地逐年增加的情况，应用相关分析、回归分析和通径分析的研究模型，探究影响昆明市耕地变化的驱动因子。结果表明：影响昆明市耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子为经济因子、人口因子和技术因子。经济因子（昆明市GDP、工业生产总值、全社会固定资产投资）在耕地减少中处于主导地位；人口因子（总人口数）间接产生一定的作用；技术因子（农机总动力）影响趋势逐渐增强。经济的增长和人口的增加，使人均耕地面积递减的速度呈加快趋势。耕地的减少和人口的增长加剧了人地矛盾，在一定程度上对生态和环境造成重大的影响。

Research on characteristics of cultivated Land change and Driving mechanism in Kunming

Abstract:According to the number of diminishing arable land and constrction land increased year by year in Kunming from 2000 to 2010.Applying to correlation analysis ,regression analysis and research path analysis;The main driving factor in Kunming change of cultivated land for economic factors,population factors and technical factor .Economic factors (Kunming GDP ,the total value of industrial production,fixedasset investment)in a dominant position in reducing arable;population factors(total population ) have some indirect effect ;technical factors (gross agricultural machinery)trends affecting gradually increased.Economic growth ,and population growth of science and technology ,so that was to accelerate the trend of decreasing arable land pen capital rate.Reduction in arable land and population growth exacerbated the contradiction between people ,to a certain extent ,have a significant impact on the ecology and the environment.