利用卫星热点测报森林火灾的报准率统计分析

卫星热点测报森林火灾的本质是测报地面高温热源,粗分辨率的遥感数据不能有效区别森林火灾与其非森林火灾,实地核查是卫星热点测报中的一个工作环节,利用GIS系统制定计算机辅助决策,提升热点处置的技术水平,是森林防火行业提出的一个应用研究课题,评估卫星热点测报森林火灾的报准率是解决问题的基础.通过收集云南省1998～2002年和2004年的卫星热点监测反馈数据11251条,按8种热源进行分类统计,进行大样本统计分析,利用总体比例估计模型进行比估计.结果表明,在90％可靠性条件下,云南的卫星热点中,森林火灾所占的比估计为29.3％,置信区间为{0.286,0.3001}.

Accuracy Statistical Analysis of Forest Fire Forecasting by Using Satellite Hot Spot

The nature of satellite hot forest fires forecasting is measuring high-temperature heat source on the ground. Coarse-resolution remote sensing data can not distinguish between forest fires and non-forest fires. Field verification is a working link in satellite hot spot forecast. Using GIS system to develop com-puter-aided decision-making to enhance technical level of hot spot analysis is an applied research topic brought up by forest fire prevention profession. The assessment of accuracy of forest fires satellite hot spot forecasting is the basis of problem solving. This article collected 11 251 Satellite hot spot monitoring feed- back data in Yunnan Province from 1998 to 2002 and in 2004. Classification statistics was made with eight kinds of heat source, and statistical analysis of large sample was made, the overall proportion esti-mated model was used for proportion estimation. The results showed that under 90% reliability condition, satellite hotspots in Yunnan, the share of forest fires proportion estimation was of 29.3% , the confidence interval was {0. 286, 0. 300 1 }.