阴雨寡照灾害对云南烤烟的种植风险预测

阴雨寡照灾害在未来将具有"空间+时间动态性"的变化特征.笔者根据烤烟种植适宜性指标和阴雨寡照等级指标,利用1981-2010年连续30年的逐日气象观测资料和2021-2050年全球气候模式HadGEM2-ES的RCPs排放情景预估结果,结合灾害系统理论,采用多元回归、"距平逼近"插值和栅格运算等方法,分析阴雨寡照灾害对...

Prediction of the Disaster Risk of Overcast and Rainy Days on Flue-cured Tobacco Planting in Yunnan

To study the effects of future disaster risk changes of overcast and rainy days with ‘spatial and temporal dynamics’ on flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan, based on flue-cured tobacco planting suitability index and overcast and rainy grade index, we adopted the approaches of multivariable regression, interpolation and raster calculating in combination with the observed meteorological data from 1981 to 2010 and the RCPs emission scenario forecast results under global climate patterns HadGEM2-ES from 2021 to 2050. The results show that the planting pattern of flue-cured tobacco in Yunnan will be transformed as the weather changes in the future. The suitable areas will expand with the warming climate, while the disaster risk of overcast and rainy days will grow at the same time. The high-risk areas will be increased, while the low-risk areas and medium-risk areas will be narrowed. In the future, the low- risk areas will be transformed into a higher level, and disaster centers will expand northward and eastward. The risk of overcast and rainy days of flue-cured tobacco at all levels will be significantly different under different decadal periods and emission scenarios. The risk will change dramatically under the RCP8.5 scenario, while RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios will have similar risk changes. In the future, the disaster risk change of overcast and rainy days of flue-cured tobacco in Yunnan will show temporal and spatial increase and difference. To avoid meteorological disasters, agricultural infrastructure construction should be enhanced.