稀释中的深化效应：城镇化对农村人力资本积累的影响

城镇化与农村人力资本积累之间的关系将会影响到乡村振兴战略和城乡融合发展的成败。基于理论分析和2005—2017年中国省级面板数据,采用固定效应、面板工具变量估计方法检验城镇化对农村人力资本积累的因果效应和内在机制。结果表明：（1）在控制其他变量的条件下,城镇化对农村人力资本积累具有显著的正向影响,城镇化率每提高一个百分点,农村人均人力资本大约增加1200~1300元;（2）城镇化强化了农村家庭人口质量偏好,农村人力资本投资持续增加,即城镇化对农村人力资本的深化效应是借助人口质量偏好机制而现实的。上述发现进一步澄清了城镇化与农村人力资本积累之间的逻辑关系,并为政府部门在设计和完善相关政策方面提供理论启发和经验证据。

Deepening Effect in Dilution: The Impact of Urbanization on Rural Human Capital Accumulation

The relationship between urbanization and rural human capital accumulation will affect the implementation of the Rural Revitalization Strategy and urban-rural integration development. Based on the theoretical analysis and the provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2017, this paper used fixed effect and panel IV estimation method to test the causal effect and internal mechanism of urbanization on rural human capital accumulation. The results showed that: (1) under the condition of controlling other variables, urbanization had a significant positive impact on the accumulation of rural human capital, and the per capita human capital in rural areas increased by 1200-1300 yuan for each percentage point of urbanization rate; (2) urbanization strengthened the preference of rural families for human quality, and the investment in rural human capital continued to increase, indicating that urbanization had a positive impact on rural human capital. The deepening effect was realized by the mechanism of population quality preference. The above findings further clarify the logical relationship between urbanization and rural human capital accumulation, and provide theoretical inspiration and empirical evidence for government departments in designing and improving relevant policies.