基于灰色关联和G（1,1）的多目标农业技术创新主体投资结构优化研究

针对多目标农业技术创新主体投资收益低于预期收益问题,提出了多目标二级灰色优化方法。在满足较低水平最优目标和灰色区间预测值内,以主体投资与较高水平目标的灰色关联度为权重,从而把多目标灰色优化转化为单目标线性规划。并给出了主体投资的非劣策略。最后对1990～2006年时间序列进行实证分析和改进区间预测,得到更加有价值的区间,并发现农户投资行为对创新效益的贡献率最大,同时得到了满足农户最优目标条件下的非劣行为策略,验证了该方法的有效性。

Study on Optimization of Investment Structure of Multi-objective Bodies of Agricultural Technology Innovation Based on Grey Correlation and GM ( 1, 1 )

For the problem that investment return of multi-objective bodies of agricultural technology innovation is lower than the expected return,a two-class grey multi-objective optimization method is proposed.Meeting the optimal lower-level target,within the grey forecast range,grey relational degree between investment bodies and higher level target is found.As a weight,the relevancy is used to change the multi-objective grey optimization into a single objective one.And the non-poor strategies in investment are given.Finally,empirical analysis and improved interval forecast are carried out for 1990-2006 time series,the more valuable interval is given,and the results are found that farms'investments in innovation make the most effect on innovation.Non-inferior behavioral strategies are obtained under farmers'optimal target,finally,the validity of this method are proved.