基于GIS的乌鲁木齐市人口空间分布模拟与变化规律研究

本文利用GIS软件,以城市土地利用和人口统计数据为主要辅助数据,提出了模拟城市人口空间分布的新思路和方法。同时,用上述方法模拟了乌鲁木齐市的人口空间分布,并用得到的栅格人口表面分析了全市人口分布的变化规律。结果显示:用该方法生成的栅格化人口表面,较传统的地区人口密度分布图更加准确和自然。在研究乌鲁木齐市的人口空间分布规律后发现全市人口密度的空间变化是由南向北渐减,人口分布大体呈"T"型,人口分布呈现多中心的集聚特点,市属辖区人口分布各异,CBD周围不同范围内,所选六个方向的人口密度变化显著。最后得出,辖区开发历史的长短、地形和道路是影响乌鲁木齐城市人口分布的关键因素。

Study on Simulating Spatial Distribution and Varying Patterns of Population in Urumqi Based on GIS

An approach of simulating spatial distribution urban population is proposed using urban land use and census data through the GIS.Then,the spatial population distribution of Urumqi is simulated by the above approach and its varying patterns are analyzed by the raster population surface.Producing raster population surface is more accurate and natural than the traditional choropleth map of population density.Concerning the spatial population distribution of Urumqi,the population density declines from south to north and the population distribution mainly presents "T-type",the population distribution presents multi-centre agglomeration and the population distribution of the sub-districts shows different features.The population density varies significantly with the increase of the distance from CBD.Finally,it shows that the development history of sub-districts,terrain and traffic road are main factors influencing Urumqi's population distribution.