安徽省产业结构演进对经济增长贡献的实证分析

通过构造产业结构合理化和高级化的统计指标，得到2003年以来安徽省产业结构演进的特征：工业是当前安徽经济发展中的主导产业，第三产业发展滞后是安徽产业结构中的主要矛盾，第三产业中仅有文体娱乐业、租赁和商务服务业、金融业为朝阳产业，交运仓储及邮电通信业、信息计算机服务和软件业、教育产业发展不足制约着安徽产业结构升级；经济增长的偏离—份额分析显示：第三产业在2009—2013年相比2004—2008年时段产业质量明显改善，房地产业和教育发展不充分拖累了第三产业的发展。建议通过体制机制创新来调整产业结构和提升经济增长质量。

An Empirical Analysis of the Contribution of Industrial Structure Evolution to Economic Growth in Anhui Province

This paper sets up rationalized and optimized statistical indexes of industrial structure of Anhui Province, and finds out the characteristics of industrial structure evolution since 2003: primary industry is the leading industry in economic development of the province at present, and slow development of tertiary industry is the principle contradiction in industrial structure, in which culture, sport and recreation industry, lease and service industry, and financial industry are sunrise industries, but transportation, post and telecommunication industry, information, computer and software industry, and education industry are less developed ones restricting the upgrading of industrial structure of the province; the shift share analysis of economic growth shows, industry quality of the province has been significantly improved between 2009 and 2013 compared with that between 2004 and 2008, and underdevelopment of real estate industry and education industry encumbers the development of tertiary industry. Thus it is necessary to innovate systems and mechanisms to readjust industrial industry and further improve the quality of economic growth.