新西兰森林火险等级系统及预测应用

新西兰是森林火灾多发的国家，由于近年来气候变化导致新西兰火灾季节延长且火灾频发。探究新西兰火险等级体系的火天气指数和火行为分析模型，可以用于模拟历史、当前和未来的火险。文中对新西兰火险等级、火行为分析模型以及用于监测当前火险的火天气系统进行了探讨，认为开展相关火行为模拟研究是上述3种管理工具的研发基础，并且可以确保火险信息的有效性和准确性。不同植被的火行为是林火管理系统的重要输入因子，当前的天气、火行为和火险由新西兰国家乡村消防局进行每日更新并通过网络发布给全国的防火机构和公众，用于中、短期防火管理计划的实施。这些火行为模型已经成为新西兰很多火管理决策支持工具的基础。新西兰气象局把火天气指标系统和他们的预测模型结合起来，产生每小时的预测图用于短期计划和应急管理。借鉴新西兰的森林火险等级系统可以为我国构建完备的国家火险等级预报系统提供技术参考，而且探讨世界各国火险等级体系和火险模型可以促进我国与世界各国森林火险信息平台共享，提高预测和应对重特大森林火灾的能力，减少森林资源的损失，助力我国“双碳”目标的实现。

Forest Fire Danger Rating System and Its Forecasting Applications in New Zealand

New Zealand is a country subject to frequent forest fires. In recent years, climate change has led to the prolonged fire season and frequent fire eruptions in New Zealand. The fire weather index and fire behavior prediction model used in the New Zealand fire danger rating system can be adopted to simulate historical, current and future fire danger. This paper discusses the fire danger rating, the fire behavior prediction model and the fire weather system used to monitor the current fire danger in New Zealand, and argues that the fire behavior simulation research is the basis of the research and development of three management tools, which could ensure the effectiveness and accuracy of fire danger information. The fire behavior of different vegetation is a necessary input factor of forest fire management system. The current weather, fire behavior and fire danger are daily updated and released by the National Rural Fire Service of New Zealand to the national fire prevention institutions and the public through the Internet, which could be used for the implementation of short- and medium-term fire management plan. In New Zealand, these fire behavior models have become the basis of many fire management decision support tools. The New Zealand Meteorological Service combines the Fire Weather Indicator System with their forecast models to produce hourly forecast maps for short-term planning and emergency management. Learning the forest fire danger rating system of New Zealand could provide a technical reference for China to build a complete national fire danger rating forecasting system. In addition, the discussion on fire danger rating system and fire danger model in various countries can promote the sharing of forest danger risk information between China and other countries, so as to improve the ability to predict and respond to severe forest fires, reduce the loss of forest resources, and help achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.