中国农业碳排放边际减排成本:参数法测度与时空分析

本文同时考虑期望产出与碳排放等环境因素的非期望产出,构建农业碳排放影子价格模型,采用参数法估算1994-2016年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的农业碳排放边际减排成本,并对各省份的农业碳减排成本的时空特征进行探究。结果显示:中国农业碳排放的影子价格估计值为6.62~551.05元/t,平均值为67.71元/t,各地区农业碳排放的边际减排成本在时间序列上降多增少,不同省份农业碳减排成本差异较大,但地区差异在样本考察期内呈现缩小趋势较为明显。本文最后探讨了基于区域减排责任分摊机制的农业碳减排政策建议。

Marginal cost of reducing agricultural carbon emissions in China:a parametric approach and spatio-temporal analysis

Considering both the expected output and the non-expected output of environmental factors such as carbon emission, this paper constructs a shadow price model of agricultural carbon emission, and estimates the marginal cost of agricultural carbon emission reduction from 1994 to 2016 in 31 provinces (cities and regions) in China, the temporal and spatial characteristics of agricultural carbon emission reduction costs in different provinces are also discussed. The results show that the shadow price of agricultural carbon emissions in China is estimated to be between 6.62 and 551.05 yuan / ton, and the average value is 67.71 yuan / ton, the cost of agricultural carbon emission reduction varies greatly in different provinces and regions, but the regional difference shows a decreasing trend in the sample period. Finally, the paper discusses the policy recommendations of agricultural carbon emission reduction based on regional emission reduction responsibility sharing mechanism.