漳州市果树12月低温预警模型及其应用

利用谐波分析法对漳州市1961-2006年共46a历年12月各旬日最低气温旬均值（TDX）资料进行数学模拟,寻找漳州市12月各旬低温的变化规律。结果显示,漳州市12月上旬TDX遵循以2.0a、2.4a、6.6a、9.2a和23.0a为周期的变化规律,中旬TDX遵循以2.0a、2.6a、2.7a、3.5a、5.8a和7.7a为周期的变化规律,下旬TDX遵循以2.0a、2.2a、2.6a、2.9a和9.2a为周期的变化规律。据此建立了可以应用于漳州市12月各旬TDX变化趋势的3个预警模型。分析了漳州市12月低温出现的趋势,结果显示2009年漳州果树可能不会发生低温害。探讨了漳州市防御果树12月低温灾害的阶段性措施：根据低温预警模型预测结果,结合短期天气预报,以临灾前的短期防御为主,采取套袋法、喷施生长调节剂法等防御措施。研究结果对减轻或避免强低温对漳州果树造成的灾害、提高水果产量和品质具有重要意义。

Early Warning Model of Low Temperature for Fruit Trees in December in Zhangzhou City and its Application

By the harmonic analysis method, the 10-day mean value of minimum temperatures (T_(DX)) in each ten-day of December in 46 calendar years from 1961 to 2006 in Zhangzhou City was simulated to find out the low temperature change in each ten-day of December. The results indicated that the T_(DX) had the cyclic changes with 2.0, 2.4, 6. 6, 9. 2 and 23. 0 years in the first ten-day, with 2. 0, 2. 6, 2. 7, 3. 5 , 5. 8 and 7. 7 years in the second ten-day and with 2. 0, 2. 2, 2. 6, 2. 9 and 9. 2 years in the last ten-day. Based on the results, three warning models were established and applied to predict the changes of T_(DX) for each ten-day of December in Zhangzhou. The trend of low temperatures in December in Zhangzhou was analyzed. The predicted results showed that the low temperatures would not cause damage to fruit trees in Zhangzhou in 2009. Based on the projection of the warning models of the low temperature and short-term weather forecasts, the cold prevention for fruit trees in Zhangzhou should be focused on short-term pre-disaster prevention measures, including bagging, spraying of growth regulators. The study would provide the references for preventing extreme low temperatures and improving the yield and quality of the fruits.