海南岛天然橡胶风害评估系统研究

针对海南岛天然橡胶风害评估存在的问题，将长时间序列的数值天气预报数据，高精度、低时空分辨率的自动气象站数据应用到橡胶风害的评估中，为橡胶灾害的灾前预评估、灾后评估提供及时有效的信息源；以可拓方法为理论基础，从孕灾环境、承灾体、致灾因子等方面确定天然橡胶风害评估的影响因子，选择气象综合因子、橡胶因子和综合地形因子，建立橡胶风害评估模型，并基于ArcGIS平台开发天然橡胶风害实时评估系统，实现天然橡胶的灾前预估和灾后评估。该系统的应用将极大地提高天然橡胶风害防灾减灾的决策能力。

Wind Injury Assessment System on Rubber Trees in Hainan Island

For resolving the problem of rubber plant wind injury assessment, the long time series of numerical weather prediction data and high-precision, low temporal and spatial resolution of automatic weather station data were applied to wind injury assessment on rubber plant, which provided timely and effective information for disaster assessment. Wind injury assessment model was established by extension method, the assessment model factors were chosen from disaster pregnant environment, disaster factors, disaster bodies. The system achieved pre-, post-disaster assessment based on ArcGIS, which will greatly enhance the capabilities of the disaster prevention and mitigation, and support decision-making in rubber plant wind injury assessment.