| 基于CERES-Rice模型分析黔中高原水稻生产对气候变化的响应 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡家敏,林忠辉,向红琼,徐永灵,古书鸿.基于CERES-Rice模型分析黔中高原水稻生产对气候变化的响应[J].中国农业气象,2011(Z1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡家敏 林忠辉 向红琼 徐永灵 古书鸿 |
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| 作者单位： | 贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;贵州省气象局; |
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| 基金项目： | 贵州省气象局基金项目[黔气科合KF(2006)10]; 贵州省科技厅项目(黔科合SZ字[2009]3014); 贵州省2008年生态与农业气象创新团队基金(IP2008-02) |
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| 摘 要： | 将贵州省花溪站2004-2005年的气象资料以及同期贵州省农业科学研究院的水稻种植田间试验资料输入作物模型CERES-Rice,通过校准和验证获得贵州水稻品种黔两优的遗传参数,利用1962-2006年的气象资料动态模拟该品种水稻的生长发育过程。结果表明,44a来,在黔中高原春、夏季气温略有下降和秋季气温略有增加的气候背景下,水稻模拟产量下降趋势不显著;模拟的水稻开花期有一定的稳定性;分期播种的模拟产量差异不显著,表明当前水稻的播种期合适,同时可适当提前以规避秋风等自然灾害对水稻产量的影响。
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| 关 键 词： | CERES-Rice模型 气候变化 水稻 |
Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Change during the Past 44 Years on Rice Production in Guizhou Plateau with CERES-Rice Model |
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| HU Jia-min,LIN Zhong-hui,XIANG Hong-qiong,XU Yong-ling,GU Shu-hong.Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Change during the Past 44 Years on Rice Production in Guizhou Plateau with CERES-Rice Model[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2011(Z1). |
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| Authors: | HU Jia-min LIN Zhong-hui XIANG Hong-qiong XU Yong-ling GU Shu-hong |
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| Institution: | HU Jia-min1,LIN Zhong-hui2,XIANG Hong-qiong3,XU Yong-ling1,GU Shu-hong1 (1.Guizhou Key Laboratory of Mountainous Climate and Resource,Guiyang 550002,China,2.Institute of Geographic Sciences andNatural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,3.Guizhou Meteorological Bureau,Guiyang 550002) |
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| Abstract: | In order to research the effect of climate change on the yield and planting of rice,firstly,using the meteorological data from 2004 to 2005 and the experimental data of rice conducted by Guizhou Academy of Agricultural Sciences as the input data of CERES-Rice model,the genotype parameters of rice cultivar Qianliangyou are obtained by calibration and validation processes.Then,based on the calibrated genotype parameters and the meteorological data from 1962 to 2006,the growth and development processes of rice... |
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| Keywords: | CERES-Rice model Climate change Rice |
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