土地整治对粮食生产韧性的影响研究——基于高标准农田建设政策的准自然实验

加快高标准农田建设和提升粮食生产韧性是复杂形势下落实“藏粮于地”战略、保障国家粮食安全的重要议题。利用 2005—2017年省级面板数据,使用熵权法测算粮食生产韧性,并运用连续DID分析高标准农田建设政策对粮食生产韧性的影响效应。结果发现,高标准农田建设政策显著提升了粮食生产韧性。通过多重稳健性检验这一结论依然成立,且这一政策效应具有稳定性和长期性。异质性分析表明,相对于非粮食主产区和东部地区,高标准农田建设政策实施对粮食主产区和中西部地区的影响更大。进一步的机制分析发现,高标准农田建设政策通过降低农业化学品投入强度、提升粮食种植比例、提高农地流转率以及提高农业社会化服务水平从而促进粮食生产韧性提升。为进一步提升粮食生产韧性,应加快落实“藏粮于地”战略,提高财政支持力度,适当向中西部地区和粮食主产区省份倾斜,加快推进高标准农田建设,严格落实高标准农田建设规划。

A Study of the Impact of Land Consolidation on the Resilience of Grain Production: A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on High-Standard Farmland Construction Policy

Accelerating the construction of high-standard farmland and improving the resilience of grain production are important issues in implementing the strategy of "sustainable farmland use" and guaranteeing national food security under the complicated circumstances. Using provincial panel data from 2005 to 2017, this paper adopts the entropy weight method to measure the resilience of grain production, and the continuous DID is used to analyze the effect of high-standard farmland construction policy on the resilience of grain production. It is found that the policy of high-standard farmland construction significantly improves the resilience of grain production, which is still valid through the multiple robustness test, and the effect of this policy is stable and long-term. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the implementation of the policy has a greater impact on the main grain-producing areas and the central and western regions than on the non-main grain-producing areas and the eastern regions. Through further mechanism analysis, it is found that the policy promotes grain production resilience by reducing the intensity of agricultural chemical inputs, increasing the proportion of grain cultivation, raising the rate of agricultural land transfer, and improving the level of agricultural socialization services. In order to further enhance the resilience of grain production, we should improve the implementation of the strategy of "sustainable farmland use", strengthen financial support, give appropriate preference to the central and western regions and to the provinces in the main grain-producing areas, accelerate the construction of high-standard farmland, and strictly implement the planning for the construction.