60多年来车尔臣河流域主要水文要素特征分析

开展河流主要水文要素变化特征分析，可为不同来水情景下水资源配置（农业需水量计算、山区水库调蓄计算、水利工程规划布局、水资源优化利用等）提供理论依据。以新疆车尔臣河为例，采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、小波分析等方法对主要水文要素变化特征进行了分析。车尔臣河径流系列变差系数（Cv）为0.34，偏差系数（Cs）为1.14，径流年际变化相对稳定；1957—2021年间径流整体呈显著增加趋势，其中1957—2003年处于上升、下降的波动状态，在2003年后径流整体呈增加趋势，且在2008年发生突变；径流过程存在 11 a和 19 a的显著主周期，在主周期内还存在 7 a和 11 a的小周期；基于距平百分率法得到丰水年来水为6.630亿m³，平水年来水量为5.319亿m³，枯水年来水量为4.820亿m³；流域降水呈现显著上升趋势，气温呈先下降后上升波动，整体呈上升趋势。研究表明，1957—2021年，在车尔臣河流域，径流年际变化相对稳定，整体呈显著增加趋势，过程存在11 a和19 a的显著主周期，降水呈波动上升趋势，气温也呈增加趋势，在未来水资源配置规划时应重点关注以上特征。

Analysis of altered characteristics of main Che'' erchen River Basin hydrological elements over the past 60 years

To analyze how changes to main hydrological elements can provide a theoretical basis for the allocation of water resources （Calculations of agricultural water demand, calculations of reservoir regulation and storage in mountainous areas, planning and layout of water conservancy projects, optimization and utilization of water resources, etc.）in different inflow scenarios. This article used the Che'' erchen River as an example and employed the M-K trend test method, wavelet analysis, and other methods to analyze changes to main hydrological elements. The coefficient of variation of Che '' erchen River was 0.34, and the deviation coefficient was 1.14. Interannual variation in run-off was relatively stable. From 1957 to 2021, the run-off exhibited a significant increasing trend, with a fluctuating upward and downward trend from 1957 to 2003. After 2003, the runoff showed an increasing trend, and an abrupt change occurred in 2008. There were significant main cycles of 11 and 19 years in the run-off process, and also smaller cycles of 7 and 11 years within the main cycle; Based on the percentage deviation method, inflow in the year of high water was 6.630×10⁸ m³, inflow in the year of low water was 5.319×10⁸ m³, and inflow in the year of low water was 4.820×10⁸ m³; Precipitation in the watershed exhibited a significant upward trend, while the temperature fluctuated downward and upward, it generally demonstrated an upward trend. From 1957 to 2021, the interannual variation of runoff was relatively stable and exhibited a significant increasing trend overall, with a significant main cycle of 11 and 19 years in the process. The precipitation data had a fluctuating upward trend, and the temperature also showed an increasing trend. In future water resource allocation planning, the above characteristics should be given special attention.