长株潭城市群雾霾农业损失引起的间接经济损失评估

雾霾给农业生产造成严重影响,这种影响通过产业关联机制波及到其它部门,使整个经济系统造成更大损失,评估这种间接经济损失对雾霾治理具有更大意义。基于湖南省2012年42部门投入产出表数据,利用产业交叉熵方法计算长株潭城市群投入产出关联系数,根据投入产出开模型与局部闭模型,根据需求侧列昂惕夫系数和供给侧的高什系数估算长株潭城市群雾霾农业损失及引起的经济系统其它各部门经济损失。研究发现：不论是从投入产出开模型或局部闭模型,还是从需求侧或者供给侧角度分析,雾霾灾害导致的部门间接经济损失都大于直接损失；基于投入产出局部闭模型估算的雾霾农业间接经济损失大于开模型估算的间接经济损失；雾霾灾害通过供给机制对经济部门造成的间接经济影响比通过需求机制造成的影响更大；部门损失关联影响程度需要综合考虑直接损失和产业关联系数。

Indirect Economic Loss Caused by Agricultural Loss Induced from Haze in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration: An Estimation

To provide a basis for haze control of various sectors in the economic system, based on the inputoutput table of Hunan and related data of Changsha- Zhuzhou- Xiangtan (CZT) urban agglomeration, we calculated the input- output correlation coefficient of CZT by the method of industry cross entropy, and constructed the partial closed input-output model, and estimated the economic losses of agriculture and other sectors caused by haze in CZT from demand side and supply side, respectively. The results showed that: (1) the indirect economic losses were generated through the forward or backward linkage mechanism from the supply side and the demand side, respectively, reflecting the degree of linkage between direct economic losses and sectors; (2) the indirect economic loss caused by haze disaster was greater than the direct economic loss; the economic loss triggered from the supply side was always greater than that from the demand side.