南方丘陵区水资源系统承载脆弱性动态演变特征研究——以衡阳盆地为例

为研究衡阳盆地农村水资源系统脆弱性动态演变问题，主要通过遥感(RS)获取研究所需数据，采用地理信息系统(GIS)空间建模和空间分析方法，以衡阳盆地为例，构建提取水资源系统承载脆弱性变化信息的数学模型，生成水资源系统承载脆弱性变化图层，分析近20年来衡阳盆地水资源系统承载脆弱性变化的时空特征，并进行趋势分析。结果表明：（1）近20年来，衡阳盆地水资源系统承载脆弱性整体上变得更为脆弱，26.1%的区域承载脆弱性指数明显增大，脆弱性指数变小的区域则微乎其微。（2）脆弱性指数区域分异明显，整体呈“中强外弱、南强北弱”的分布格局。（3）从脆弱性指数演变的时段上来看，水资源承载脆弱性总体上呈增强趋势，其中，尤以2005—2010年时段的变化最为明显。（4）从变化趋势来看，区域水资源承载脆弱性指数主要表现为稳定型和波动型2种趋势，单调增大和单调减小型所占比例极小。

Dynamic Characteristics of Burden Vulnerability of Water Resource System in Hilly Areas of Southern China Based on GIS and RS: A Case Study on Hengyang Basin

In order to study the dynamic evolution of the vulnerability of rural water resources system in Hengyang Basin, by collecting required data of the research through RS, building the spatial model and conducting the spatial analysis with GIS, the authors constructed a mathematical model to extract the changing information and generated the changing layers about burden vulnerability of water resource system in Hengyang Basin to analyze the spatial-temporal characteristics of burden vulnerability of water resources system and the changing trend during recent two decades in this area. After the careful research and detailed analysis, this essay draws the conclusions as below: firstly, the water resource system in Hengyang Basin has become much more vulnerable in recent two decades. 26.1% of regional burden vulnerability index has an apparent increase while there is a little decrease in this index. Secondly, the variation districts of burden vulnerability index in Hengyang Basin are apparently distinctive. The middle area is strong and the surrounding area is weak, the north area is strong and the south area is weak. Thirdly, the variation period of burden vulnerability index presents a typical character of sharply increase, especially in the ending period of 2005-2010. Finally, from the perspective of changing trend, the burden vulnerability index in regional water resource shows two main types of variation: the stability type and the fluctuation type. The sustainable increase and monotonic decrease are seldom seen in Hengyang Basin.