黑龙江省耕地集约利用驱动因素分析

为探寻耕地集约利用的主要驱动力及各因素之间的相互关系，从自然、人口、政策、科技和社会经济五个方面选取30个指标，采用灰色关联法和通径分析法定量分析影响黑龙江省耕地集约利用的驱动因素及作用机理。结果表明:（1）自然因素和人口因素是黑龙江省耕地集约利用变化的主要驱动力，社会经济因素和科技因素是次要驱动力，政策因素对耕地集约利用的影响作用最小；（2）城市化水平和非农业人口是决定耕地集约利用的主导因子，尽管总人口和粮食单产对耕地集约利用的直接作用较小，但通过其它指标对耕地利用集约度的间接作用较大。

Study on Driving Forces of Intensive Cultivated Land Use in Heilongjiang Province

In order to discuss the main driving forces of intensive cultivated land use and the correlation between each factor, 30 indexes from five aspects including nature, population, policy, technology and socio-economic condition were collected, and driving factors and change mechanism of intensive cultivated land use in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed by using grey correlation and path analysis. The results show that: (1) nature and population are the main driving factors, socio-economic condition and technology are the subordinate factors, and policy has the minimal effect on intensive cultivated land use; (2) the level of urbanization and non-agricultural population are the main factors influencing intensive cultivated land use. Total population and grain yield have less direct effect on intensive cultivated land use, but have the greater indirect effect through other factors.