乌鲁木齐市近16年建设用地和耕地变化驱动力比较分析

以新疆乌鲁木齐市1996—2011年自然、人文和土地利用数据为依据，基于数理统计分析方法和统计软件，对乌鲁木齐市16 a的建设用地和耕地变化特征和驱动机制进行了探讨和对比分析。结果表明:（1）1996—2011年乌鲁木齐市建设用地经历了平缓上升→迅速增长→减速增长的变化历程，耕地则为平缓减少→迅速增加→逐渐较少。（2）经济发展、人口增长、农业技术进步和产业结构调整是影响乌鲁木齐市建设用地和耕地动态变化的因素，而政策措施对该市的建设用地和耕地变化起直接导向作用。（3）各驱动力对建设用地和耕地驱动方向、驱动力大小、驱动因素影响的敏感性均表现出差异性，且同一土地利用类型在不同时期驱动因素也有差异。本研究旨在揭示建设用地和耕地变化规律及机制的同时为区域土地的可持续利用和生态环境保护提供科学依据。

Comparison Analysis on Driving Forces of Construction Land and Cultivated Land Use Change in Urumqi City during 1996 to 2011

Based on the nature and economy and land use data during 1996 to 2011 in Urumqi, the method of mathematical statistics and software of statistical analysis were used to make an in-depth discussion and comparison research for the change features and driving mechanism of cultivated land and construction land. The results indicated that: (1) the change of construction land experienced such phases as steady growth,rapidly increase then slow growth, the change of cultivated land experienced such phases as slow to reduce, dramatic increase then gradually reduce; (2) economic development, population growth, agricultural technological progress and industrial structure adjustment are four types of driving forces on the change of construction land and cultivated land, however policies and measures play a direct guiding role; (3) driving factors, driving direction and driving strength between construction land and cultivated land display difference, and the sequences in strength of each socio-economic driving force on construction land or cultivated land show remarkable distinction. In addition, the driving factors on the same land use type are different in different periods. This research can reveal rule and reasons for change of construction land and arable land, and then provide a scientific basis for the sustainable use of land and protection of ecological environment.