基于模糊数学模型的城市生态系统健康动态变化评价

城市生态系统健康与否关系到城市的可持续发展，开展城市生态系统健康评价研究可为制订城市规划、生态和环境保护规划提供科学的依据。以重庆市为例，选取城市生态系统活力、组织结构、恢复力、服务功能和动态变化5个方面，作为城市生态系统健康评价的指标体系。基于主成分分析法确定指标的权重，运用模糊数学评价方法对重庆市2004—2011年的生态系统健康状况进行评价分析，另外，为了反映重庆市生态系统健康的优劣程度，选取上海、青岛和成都2011年的生态系统健康状况与重庆作横向对比评价。结果表明:重庆市2004—2011年生态系统健康状况呈逐年良性发展态势；在2011年城市生态系统健康状况对比评价中，上海最优，成都其次，重庆第三，青岛相对最差。最后，提出了改善城市生态系统健康水平的建议。

Dynamic Evaluation on Urban Ecosystem Health Based on Fuzzy Mathematics Model

The health of urban ecosystem is related to the sustainable development of cities. The study of the urban ecosystem health assessment could provide the criterion for formulating schedules about the urban development and the protection of ecological environment. We took the vigor of urban ecological system, organization structure, restoring force, service function and dynamic change as the healthy criterion for the urban ecological system and applied the criterion to Chongqing City. This paper ensured the weight factor of the criterion, and adapted fuzzy mathematical evaluation method to analyze the ecological system health condition of Chongqing City from 2004 to 2011 by using principal component analysis. On the other hand, in order to identify how well the ecosystem of Chongqing City is, in corresponding, we chose other three cities, Chengdu, Shanghai and Qingdao to compare their ecosystem health condition in 2011 with Chongqing. The comparison result showed that Chongqing’s ecosystem health condition was growing better yearly from 2004 to 2011; in 2011, at the evaluation of these four cities’ ecosystem health condition, Shanghai is the best, followed by Chengdu and Chongqing, Qingdao City is relatively the worst. At last, this paper gave some suggestions for how to improve the urban ecosystem health condition.