新疆东部地区气候变化及对生态环境的影响

采用线性回归分析以及Mann-Kendall和累积距平等突变检验方法对新疆东部地区1961—2011年的气温和降水两个指标进行研究，从而揭示该地区气候变化的事实及趋势，探讨了其对区域生态环境的影响。研究显示新疆东部地区及各站点年平均和四季平均气温在过去50多年内均呈上升趋势，达0.42℃/10 a，增温率是IPCC第四次报告中全球近50 a增温率的三倍多，高于中国和西北干旱区的增温率，并且在1993年发生增温速度的突变。四季气温中，冬季气温升高对年气温上升贡献最大。新疆东部地区各站点年降水量在研究时段内有增有减，巴里坤站呈较为明显增加趋势，增幅为9.77 mm/10 a，而十三间房站年降水量呈微弱的下降趋势，下降了1.97 mm/10 a，其余各站均有增加趋势，但趋势不显著，并且在1976年发生了增湿突变。新疆东部地区温度升高，降水量增加，总体向暖湿化发展，这种变化对该地区水资源和沙尘暴天气事件等生态环境有重要的影响，具体的影响评估需要进一步研究。

Climate Change in Eastern Region of Xinjiang in the Past 50 Years and Its Effects on the Local Ecological Environment

The method of linear regression trend analysis and Mann Kendall and cumulative distance equal mutation testing method were adopted to study the temperature and precipitation in 1961—2011 in the eastern region of Xinjiang, revealing the fact of climate change in the region and trend, and to discusses its impact on regional ecological environment. The study results show that the eastern region in Xinjiang and each site the annual average temperature of the four seasons was rising over the past 50 years, the rate of warming nearly 50 years was more than three times of the global warming rate reported by the IPCC the fourth time, the rate of warming was up to 0.42 ℃/10 a, warming rate is higher than that of China and the northwest arid areas, and the abrupt change of increasing temperature occurred in 1993. The winter temperatures among the four seasons had the largest contribution to the temperature rise. Annual rainfall in eastern region of Xinjiang workstations was increasing with decreasing during the study period and it presented more significantly increased trend at Balikun station, increase rate was 9.77 mm/10 a, the annual precipitation presented a weak downward trend at Shisanjianfang station, and the decline rate was 1.97 mm/10 a, the annual precipitation at the rest of the stations had increased, but the trend was not significant, and humidifying mutation happened in 1976. Temperature of the eastern region in Xinjiang rose, precipitation increased. The overall development was towards to warming and humidity, which had the significant impact on the change of water resources in the region and ecological environment such as wind and dust storm weather events. The further research for evaluation on the exact is necessary in this region.