中部粮食主产区土地利用变化及其驱动机制研究——以湖北省鄂州市为例

区域土地利用变化过程、格局与驱动力研究是揭示全球与区域尺度土地利用/覆盖变化规律的有效方法。基于鄂州市1991年、2004年和2009年3个时期土地利用空间数据和社会经济统计数据，采用土地利用转移矩阵、主成分分析法等模型方法，分析土地利用变化总体特征、各地类转化方向以及土地利用变化驱动因素。结果表明:（1）18 a期间，鄂州市土地利用变化显著，耕地面积减少最大，减幅达到28.39%，主要转移方向为建设用地、养殖和林地。（2）养殖水面和建设用地大量增加，增幅分别为200.62%，84.83%，主要增加来源为耕地和水体。（3）土地利用变化主要驱动因素为经济增长、人民生活水平提高和人口增加，政策和城市规划也是重要的驱动因素。

Land Use Change and Its Driving Force of Major Grain Production Areas in Central of China

It is an effective way to reveal global and regional land use change process by researching on the regional land use change process, pattern, and driving force. This paper analyzes the general characteristics and driving forces of land use change, transformation direction of land use status by ways of land use conversion matrix model and principal component analysis, based on Ezhou land use spatial data and social economy data in 1991, 2004 and 2009. The result shows that land use change is obvious over the past 18 years, especially for the cultivated land, which is decreased to 28.39%. The reduced cultivated lands were transferred to construction land, aquaculture land and forestland. So the growth rate of aquaculture land and construction land were 200.62% and 84.83%, which originated from farmland and water area. The main social economy driving force is economy growth, the improvement of people's living standards, and population growth, policy of government and urban planning are also the important driving forces.