邢台市水资源生态足迹核算与预测研究

运用生态足迹理论和灰色预测GM（1，1）模型等方法，对邢台市区2001—2010年的水资源生态足迹、水资源生态承载力进行计算，分析了水资源可持续发展状况，并对水资源生态赤字进行预测。结果表明，邢台市区水资源一直处于生态赤字状态，而且水资源生态赤字呈逐年增大的趋势，表明邢台市区水资源的利用与管理是不可持续的。尽管由于科学技术水平的提高和人们节水意识增强，水资源利用与管理正在逐渐趋于合理，但水资源仍处于生态赤字状态，意味着邢台市水资源在今后一定时期形势仍较严峻。因此，必须对邢台市水资源进行合理开发利用和科学管理，以促进邢台市区水资源可持续利用。

Research for Calculation and Prediction of Water Resource Ecological Footprint in Xingtai City,Hebei Province

Using the techniques of ecological foot-printing theory and gray forecasting model, we calculated the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capability of water resources from 2001 to 2010 in Xingtai City, analyzed the sustainable development of water resources and predicted the water resources ecological deficit. It shows that the water resources have always been in a state of ecological deficit and the water resources ecological deficit tends to increase annually. The data show that the water resources have been used and managed in an unsustainable manner, which demonstrates that the management of the water resources is becoming more and more reasonable with the development of science and technology and the strengthening awareness of water conservation. However, the state of water resources in Xingtai City has always been in the ecological deficit, which means that Xingtai will face a serious situation in the future. Therefore, the water resources must be exploit and used in the sustainable manner, and the sustainable development of water resources should be promoted in Xingtai City.