基于SWAT模型的内蒙古锡林河流域降水-径流特征及不同水文年径流模拟研究

以我国北方寒旱区草原中典型流域——锡林河流域为研究对象，结合我国北方寒旱区草原型河流流域的气候特点、下垫面条件及水文过程的特殊性，通过分析锡林河流域近30 a的降水—径流变化特征，利用锡林河水文站的年径流频率曲线，采用一定保证率条件下的年径流量作为划分流域丰平枯水年的标准，对锡林河流域历史水文年进行划分。基于此基础，以ARCSWAT2012为操作平台，应用地理统计分析方法，对模型建立过程中所需的各数据库进行基础数据整备与参数化，分析影响模型径流模拟精度的主要参数，进行模型的参数率定与结果精度评价，分别对锡林河流域各丰、平、枯水年进行径流模拟，并对其结果进行了检验。结果表明:SWAT模型对细化流域降水—径流分配的径流模拟具有不同的精度，即平水年 > 偏丰水年 > 丰水年 > 偏枯水年 > 枯水年，体现出SWAT模型在中国北方寒旱区丰水年和平水年具有较好的可操作性。

Analysis on Rainfall-Runoff Characteristics and Simulation of the Different Hydrologic Year Runoff of Xilin River Basin in Inner Mongolia Based on SWAT Model

Xilin River is a typical grassland river located in Inner Mongolia, which is a cold-arid-region in the north of China. Its basin was investigated and some necessary experiments were carried out by means of hydrological processes. The hydrological nonlinear system theory, geological statistics, remote sensing and geographic information system were used to determine the parameters that are required by SWAT. In conclusion, using SWAT to simulate the hydrological processes in the cold-arid-regions with a characteristic of snowmelt-runoff could represent different accuracies. The best fitting result between the observed and simulated data was obtained for the normal hydrologic years, the worst for the dry years, between which the accuracies were partial wet years > wet years > partial dry year.