基于ESDA的费县土地利用时空演变研究

以费县土地利用规划修编过程中的现状数据（2005年、2009年）和规划数据（2020年）为数据源，根据土地利用总体规划规范标准和土地利用程度分级指数，利用ArcGIS、GeoDa空间统计分析软件，分别计算了费县乡级和村级两种尺度下的土地利用程度Moran’s I指数。结果表明，土地利用变化呈现出明显的集聚分布特征，空间自相关指数会随着研究区域尺度的变大而变小，同时也揭示了费县各地区土地利用程度分布不均，未来费县土地开发利用将主要围绕费城街道和探沂镇两个中心，由点及面地呈现出双中心发展的格局，本研究对于调整优化土地利用结构和布局具有重要参考意义。

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Land Use in Fei County Based on ESDA

The Moran’s I of township scale and village scale was calculated by using the source data of current land-use data(2005 and 2009)and land use planning data (2020) of Fei county on platform of ArcGIS and GeoDa based on land use planning normative standards and land-use degree classification index. The results showed that land-use change got a significant agglomeration characteristics and distribution characteristics. The value of Moran’s I became smaller with the scale of research region getting bigger. Meanwhile, it revealed the extent of the uneven distribution of land use, and the land development and utilization of future Fei county would mainly focus on two towns of Feicheng and Tanyi presenting a double center development pattern. All in all, the research has important reference value for the adjustment and optimization of land use structure and layout.