河南省农业碳排放时空特征及影响因素研究

基于农业生产中6个主要的碳源，测算了1998—2011年间河南省农业碳排放量和碳排放强度。发现自1998年以来，河南省农业碳排放呈现出阶段性上升态势，大致可分为增速放缓、快速增长和增长下降三个阶段，并分析了每个阶段形成的原因。测算了河南省各地市的碳排放情况，发现河南省农业碳排放总量较高的地区主要为耕地面积较大、农业在区域经济发展中所占比重较高的区域，碳排放强度较高的区域主要位于经济发展较好，区内地形平坦的区域。并利用Kaya恒等式变形对河南省农业碳排放影响因素进行了分析，发现效率因素、结构因素和劳动力因素对河南省农业碳排放有抑制作用，而农业经济发展是造成河南省农业碳排放量增加的主要因素。最后，给出了促进河南省农业碳减排的建议。

Research on Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Impact Factors Decomposition of Agricultural Carbon Emission in He'nan Province

Based on six kinds of main carbon sources from agricultural production, this paper calculates He'nan Province's agricultural carbon emission load from 1998 to 2011. It was found that the agricultural carbon emission load was in the gradual upward trend since 1998. In general, it can be devided into three periods: slow growth period, rapid growth period and growth rate slowing-down period. By calculating the agricultural carbon emission in every district of He'nan Province, it was found that the higher carbon emission areas distributed intensively in the regions where the areas of the cultivated lands are relatively large and agriculture accounts for high proportion in regional economies and the higher carbon intensity areas distribute intensively in the regions of the better-performing regional economies and the regional flat terrain. Decomposing all the impact factors through transformation of Kaya identical equation, the result shows the factors of efficiency, structure and labor scale can retrain carbon emission, but the effect is not obvious and fluctuating drastically. In contrast, agricultural economic development played an active role in agricultural carbon emission. Finally, some policy suggestions are proposed to reduce agricultural carbon emission.