1961—2011年临沂市气温变化特征分析

为了掌握临沂市的气温变化特征，给今后开展各农业界限温度和积温的研究提供理论依据，以便更好地为临沂地区农业气候热量资源的分析和区划以及农业气象预报、情报服务，利用1961—2011年临沂市的气温资料，采用线性倾向估计、累积距平法(CA)、曼-肯德尔法（Mann-Kendall法，简称M-K法），研究分析了51年临沂市的气温变化特征（包括年及各季度平均气温、年极端最高与最低气温和日平均最高与最低气温）。结果表明：近51年临沂地区气温的增温趋势十分明显，且增幅高出全国水平，年平均气温以0.25℃/10 a的趋势变暖，温度季变化各有不同，冬季增暖趋势最为明显，达0.49℃/10 a，春季次之为0.30℃/10 a，秋季为0.24℃/10 a，夏季增温则最不明显，仅为0.03℃/10 a；最高最低气温方面，年极端最低气温增幅最为显著，达到0.95℃/10 a，其次是日平均最低气温增幅为0.40℃/10 a，日平均最高气温为0.14℃/10 a，而极端最高气温则呈现弱的降温趋势，对年度平均气温增幅贡献最大的是冬季平均气温和日平均最低气温的上升；气温在20世纪80年代中后期到90年代初发生了一次显著的变暖突变，且90年代之后增暖趋势较为明显。

Analysis on the Characteristics of Temperature Variation from 1961 to 2011 in Linyi City

In order to master the characteristics of temperature variation over Linyi City, providing theoretical basis for carrying out research of the agriculture critical temperature and accumulated temperature, and so as to serve the analysis and regionalization of the agro-climatic heat resource and agricultural weather forecasting and intelligence well in Linyi Region. Based on the air temperature data of Linyi from 1961 to 2011, the author mainly analyzed the characteristics of temperature variation over Linyi City in recent 51 years (including the annual and each quarter of the average temperature, annual extreme maximum, minimum temperature and the mean daily maximum, minimum temperature) with linear trend estimation, accumulative anomaly, Mann-Kendall. The results showed that: the warming trend of temperature was very obvious in recent 51 years of Linyi, and the increase rate was higher than the national average level, the annual average temperature increased by 0.25℃every decade, and there were significant differences between the four seasons, the most obvious trend reached to 0.49℃every decade in the winter, spring followed by rising 0.30℃every decade, and 0.24℃rising every decade in autumn, summer was insignificant just 0.03℃every decade; in aspects of the maximum and minimum temperature, the annual extreme minimum temperature was the most significant by rising 0.95℃per decade, 0.40℃rising every decade in the mean daily minimum temperature and 0.14℃rising to the maximum one, while the annual extreme maximum temperature presented a weak cooling trend, the largest contribution to the growth of the annual average temperature was the rising of the winter average temperature and the mean daily minimum temperature; the air temperature had an obvious warming mutation in the late 1980s to the early 1990s.