生猪价格时间序列的规律性波形和成因及调控

通过对生猪价格时间序列的观察,可以发现一些规律性的波形,如价格上升区间通常持续15个月,下跌区间通常持续20个月。从经济学原理、生猪的自然繁殖规律以及养殖户的决策行为出发,对生猪价格时间序列中规律性波形的成因做出合理的解释,而这种解释的正确性,可以通过对能繁母猪数量、存栏量以及出栏活重时间序列的分析,得到进一步的印证。掌握生猪价格时间序列规律性波形的成因,有利于提高生猪价格预测的准确性和调控措施的有效性。

Cause of Regular Shape of Hog Price Time Series and Controlling

Some regular shapes can be found by inspecting various hog time series, such as hog price arising usually last 15months and hog price lowing usually last 20months. Reasonable explain of the causes of the shapes of the hog price time series can be provided by economic principal, hog's breed rule and breeder's decision making behavior, and make these causes proved according to the analysis of sow number, inventory and slaughter weight. So if the causes of the regular shapes of hog price time series are discovered, we can improve the accuracy of hog price forecasting and improve the reasonability of hog price controlling.