Multi-scale mismatches between urban sprawl and landscape fragmentation create windows of opportunity for conservation development

Context

Urban sprawl and the expanding transportation infrastructure drive land consumption and landscape fragmentation, causing environmental deterioration and loss of species. Current understanding of how these drivers interact to shape landscape fragmentation is still poor. However, a strong correlation between urban sprawl and landscape fragmentation patterns is commonly assumed.

Objectives

Our main objective was to test the strength, non-stationarity, and scale-dependency of the relationship between urban sprawl and landscape fragmentation patterns (‘sprawl-fragmentation relationship’). Subsequently, we propose an extended framework for the links between urban sprawl, expansion of transport infrastructure, and landscape fragmentation.

Methods

We quantified spatial patterns of urban sprawl and landscape fragmentation for mainland Spain at multiple scales. We then fitted global regression models and geographically weighted regression models with metrics of landscape fragmentation and urban sprawl.

Results

Most variation in landscape fragmentation values (almost 80 % on average) is not explained by urban sprawl metrics through global modeling. Local models show substantial improvements in model performance, with an average of 37 % of the variance remaining unexplained. The contribution of urban sprawl to landscape fragmentation patterns varies locally and depends on scale, with higher contributions at coarser scales and at higher organizational levels.

Conclusions

Our investigation revealed three critical characteristics of the sprawl-fragmentation relationship: it does not prevail, is non-stationary, and scale-dependent. We propose four mechanisms that may have resulted in this mismatch: scale, time-lagged development, spatial arrangement of development, and other external variables including teleconnections. These spatial mismatches provide windows of opportunity for conservation through better development strategies.