Synoptic weather typing and typhoon with an application to Chiayi, Taiwan: potential for future climate change impact analysis |
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Authors: | Chad Shouquan Cheng Pao-Shan Yu Qian Li Guilong Li Jung-Lien Chu |
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Institution: | (1) Atmospheric Science and Applications Unit, Meteorological Service of Canada Branch, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON, M3H 5T4, Canada;(2) Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, National Cheng-Kung University, Tainan, 701, Taiwan |
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Abstract: | In this study, an automated synoptic weather typing was employed to identity the weather types most likely associated with
daily typhoon/typhoon-related heavy rainfall events for Chiayi, Taiwan. The synoptic weather typing was developed using principal
components analysis, an average linkage clustering procedure, and discriminant function analysis. The classification results
showed that the synoptic weather typing was successful at identifying typhoon-related weather types. Five synoptic weather
types (Weather Types 1–5) were identified over the past 11-year period as the primary typhoon-related weather types. These
five typhoon-related weather types can capture 34 out of 36 total typhoon-related heavy rainfall days (>50 mm/d) and all nine
cases with typhoon-related daily rainfall >200 mm during the period March 1998–December 2008. This result suggests that synoptic
weather typing can be useful to identify historical typhoon/typhoon-related heavy rainfall events. Moreover, the method has
potential to assess climate change impacts on the frequency/intensity of future typhoon/typhoon-related heavy rainfall events
using future downscaled GCM climate data. |
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