内蒙古环境污染水平与经济增长的库兹涅茨关系分析

为了给内蒙古环境政策提供依据，以进一步促进内蒙古环境与经济之间协调发展，笔者研究了内蒙古环境污染与经济增长之间的关系。基于环境库兹涅茨曲线模型，采用1986-2009年内蒙古环境经济数据，建立内蒙古工业污染物排放与人均国内生产总值(GDP)之间的评价模型。结果表明，在研究区间内，内蒙古固体废弃物与工业废气排放量产生量急速上升，与人均GDP之间的关系处于倒“U”型曲线的左半部分上升阶段：2009年的固体废弃物产生量比1986年增长了10508.32万t，平均年增长率为9.17%。2009年的工业废气排放量比1986年增长了22828.36万t，平均年增长率为11.54%；其中，SO2排放量与人均GDP之间已存在拐点，并呈现完全的倒“U”型关系，拐点发生在人均7793.76元时。工业废水排放量增长率变化较缓，平均年增长率为0.35%；烟尘和粉尘排放量在研究时段内逐年递减。通过工业污染物排放及其可能影响因子之间的灰色关联度分析，探究了1986年后内蒙古工业污染物排放的库兹涅茨曲线的成因。结果表明，内蒙古市环境污染的主要关联因子包括产业结构、GDP总量、单位GDP能耗、城镇人口比例。本研究结果将为内蒙古经济在不断增加的环境压力下保持可持续发展、协调经济增长与环境污染之间的关系提供参考。

Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Relationship Between Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth of Inner Mongolia

In order to provide suggestions for environmental policy and keep balance between environment protection and economic development, the authors studied the relationship between environment pollution and economic growth in Inner Mongolia. Based on the theory of Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC）, the authors used various models to test if the relationship between environmental wastes and gross domestic product in Inner Mongolia from 1986 to 2009 could fit the Environmental Kuznets Curve model. The authors discussed the relationship between environment quality and economic development of Inner Mongolia and estimated the trend of wastes discharge theoretically. The results showed that： the production of volume of solid waste and industrial emissions in Inner Mongolia increased rapidly as per capita GDP increased, of which the relationship could fit the left part of the inverted ＇U-type＇ EKC, the discharge of solid wastes had increased by 105.0832 million tons from 1986 to 2009 with the annual growth rate of 9.17% and the discharge of industrial emissions increased by 228.2836 million tons with the annual growth rate of 11.54%, while the emission of sulfur dioxidewas surpassing the turning point of the curve, being m the decreasing phase or rne mverteu u-tyl.~ discharge of liquid waste was in a slow growing phase accompanied by the increase of per capita GDP and the discharge of soot and dust displayed a general downward trend. Meanwhile, using the gray relative analysis method, the authors studied the internal association resuhs, and the resuhs showed the main factors which influenced environmental changes in Inner Mongolia included industrial structure, total gross domestic production, energy consumption in unit GDP and urbanization process. Based on our analysis, it presented a series of policy choices as guidelines for creating a win-win situation for both the economy and the environment.