基于CA-MARKOV模型的北京湿地资源变化预测研究

为了掌握北京湿地资源近20年的变化情况和未来的变化趋势，采用CA-MARKOV模型对北京湿地资源时空格局变化进行模拟预测，以北京市1992年、2002年和2007年3期湿地类型遥感解译结果为数据基础，通过确定CA-Markov模型的空间研究对象、约束条件、模型参数、转换规则（包括研究区降水、温度、湿度及地形信息），利用2002和2007年2期数据计算步长为5年的转换规则，1992年和2007年2期数据计算步长为15年的转换规则，预测2012年和2022年北京湿地的时空变化情况。结果表明，预测2012年北京湿地面积总量为48402.8 hm2，相对2007年湿地面积减少了7.38%，年均减少率为1.47%，2022年北京湿地面积继续减少。预测结果得出了北京市湿地资源合理、科学的动态变化趋势。

Study on the Forecast of Wetland Resources Changes in Beijing Based on CA-MARKOV Model

In order to know the changing situation of Beijing wetland resources nearly 20 years, and the trend features in future, the author used CA-MARKOV model to analyze wetland resources changes in Beijing. The constraint condition, model parameter, transition rules （including research area precipitation, temperature, humidity and DEM） of model were determined based on wetland classification results of 1992, 2002, 2007, 3 remote sensing image data. Step features of 5 years and 15 years were identified, used to predict the 2012 and 2022 spatial-temporal characteristics in wetland of Beijing. The results of this study showed that wetland area of Beijing was total to 48402.8 hm2 in 2012. It was reduced 7.38% from 2007 to 2012, with an average annual reduction rate of 1.47%.The area of wetland was continuing to decline in 2022.