1955-2010年淮北平原冬季农业气候变化基本特征与影响初探

为了给淮北平原冬季农业生产提供科学依据，利用1955-2010年淮北平原代表站宿州市冬季（12月-次年2月）逐日气候监测资料，采用数理统计方法，研究揭示了冬季农业气候基本要素和相关农业气候指标的演变特征及其对农业的影响。结果表明：（1）55年间，淮北平原冬季气温明显升高，≥0℃的积温明显增多，1986年为冬季气温升高的跃变点，但冬季日照时数减少，年际间冬季降水量波动增大，气象干旱是冬季小麦生产中的主要气象灾害；（2）冬季增暖后，致使冬小麦处于缓慢生长状态，但是冬小麦完成春化阶段的最适宜和适宜的低温天数呈“一少一多”变化态势，以及暖冬促进小麦生育进程相应提前的事实增加了小麦顺利完成春化阶段和后期遭受春霜冻害的风险；小麦育种和引种宜选择春化阶段温度指标范围较宽的品种；（3）虽然冬暖对设施农业生产有利，但是不利于设施农业生产的弱光照天数在增加；同时，现有结构的设施农业生产，在冬季增暖背景下仍然存在较大的低温冻害风险，生产中应注意防范强低温，并科学设计温棚结构来应对日照时数不足。安徽淮北平原冬季气候增暖趋势明显，冬季光、热、水等农业气候基本要素和积温、极端低温、弱光照等农业气候指标呈现诸多变化，对冬季农业生产的影响有利有弊。

Analysis on Preliminary Effects and Basic Features of Agroclimatic Changes in Huaibei Plain from 1955 to 2010

To provide the scientific basis for inducting the agricultural production in winter m tiualbel plato, based on the daily meteorological Observation dataset from typical site in Huaibei plain （from December to January） from 1955 to 2010, the author analyzed and disclosed the evolution characteristics of agroclimatic basic elements and agroclimatic index and their influences on agriculture by means of mathematical statistics. The results showed that： （1） in Huaibei plain, the average temperature and accumulated temperature （~0~C） in winter obviously increased in 55 years, in which the mutational point appeared in 1986, but the sunlight time decreased and the fluctuation of inter-annual rainfall increased, so the meteorological drought became the main meteorological disaster for wheat production in winter; （2） Even though warming winter caused the winterwheat in low-growing stage, the phenomenon that the most suitable and suitable chilling days needed to complete the stage of vernalization for winter wheat exhibits an up and down trend and the fact that warming winter caused the growing stage of wheat to happen in advance increase the risks of not completing the stage of vernalization successfully and being subject to injury by frost. So the breeds whose vernalization coverd a wide temperature range should be selected in wheat introduction breeding; （3） Even though warming winter was good for agricultural facilities, the number of dimly days which was turning against agricultural facilities increased. Simultaneously the current greenhouse cropping system still had the risks of low temperature and freezing injury. So, it was necessary to guard against lower temperatures and scientifically design the greenhouse structure to fight against insufficient hours of sunshine. The winter temperature had an obvious increasing trend in Huaibei plain in Anhui Province. The agroclimatic basic elements i.e. sunlight, heat and water and agroclimatic index i.e. accumulation temperature, extreme winter cold, insufficient illumination had different changes and had both advantages and disadvantages to agricultural production in winter.