未来情景下东北地区极端气候事件的模拟分析

为了预测评估全球变暖背景下东北地区所面临的极端气候事件的可能变化趋势,并为粮食生产应对极端气候事件提供参考依据。利用Hadley气候预测与研究中心的区域气候模式系统PRECIS进行中国东北区域气候基准时段(1961—1990年)和SRES A2情景下2071—2100年极端事件变化响应的分析。气候基准时段的模拟结果与观测资料的对比分析表明:PRECIS具有对中国东北地区极端事件的模拟能力,能够模拟出极端事件的空间分布以及随地形变化的细节特征。对SRES A2情景下相对于气候基准时段的极端气候事件的变化响应分析表明:东北地区极端事件发生频率呈明显变化,极端低温事件减少,高温事件增加。夏季日数增加明显,增幅范围为50%~400%。极端温较差也呈增加趋势,大部分地区增幅为0%~5%。生长季长度呈地理特征的变化,东部和西部地区增幅较大。冰冻日数和最大连续霜冻日数都呈减少趋势。

Simulation Analysis of Extreme Events of Climate Change in the Northeast China in the Future

In order to predict and evaluate the extreme events of climate change in northeast China under the background of global warming,and provide reference for food production to address the extreme events of climate change.The regional climate model system PRECIS developed by Hadley centre for climate prediction and the research had been used to study the extreme events of climate change response under the baseline and SRES A2 scenario in the northeast China.PRECIS had the ability to simulate the extreme events of climate change in northeast China and their spatial distributions of and details varies with terrain through simulations and compared with observations under the baseline.As the analysis and calculation results under SRES A2 scenario relative to baseline（1961-1990） showed that： a clear change of frequency of climate change extreme events would occur in northeast China.Extremes of cold decrease,extremes of heat increase,and summer days raised obviously with an increase of 50%-400%.Extreme temperature range increased with an increase of 0%-5%;Length of growth period varied with geographical features,there was a greater increase in the east and west in the northeast China,but both frost days and consecutive frost days tended to decrease.