安徽油菜气候适宜度评价指标的建立与应用

为了评价油菜生长发育过程中气候条件的适宜程度，为政府决策部门和农业生产者及时合理地开展田间管理和农业生产提供科学依据，利用安徽省油菜主要种植区1961-2010年油菜生长阶段气象资料，采用模糊数学方法，结合已有的研究成果和油菜的生理特征，建立了安徽省区域油菜气候适宜度评价模型，并进行了验证；同时，根据综合气候适宜度和产量丰歉指数的关系，建立了油菜不同时间尺度的气候条件适宜性评价指标。结果表明：气候适宜度与产量丰歉指数具有显著相关性，气候适宜度评价模型可以动态反映安徽省各区域气候条件对油菜生长发育和产量形成的适宜程度，评价指标对各区域油菜生育期内气候条件适宜程度的评价有较高的准确率，对其长势和产量有较好的区分度，且稳定性较好，可以业务应用。

Establishment and Application of Climatic Suitability Indicator of Rape in Anhui Province

In order to evaluate the suitability of climate condition in rape’s growth period, and provide the scientific guidance for the government strategy and farmers’field management and agricultural production, by using the meteorological data from rape planting area in Anhui Province, and on the basis of physiological characteristics of rape and the research results of predecessors, the suitability models in different regions about climate were constructed, and the suitability models had been verified. According to the relationship between climate suitability and bumper or poor harvest index of rape, climatic suitability indicators on different time scales were set up. The results indicated that the climatic suitability model could dynamically reflect the suitable level of meteorological condition on rape growth/yield. Climatic suitability indicators had high evaluation accuracy, and they could satisfy the needs of operational services.