可变模糊集理论在旱涝灾害评价中的应用研究

旱涝灾害是制约农业经济发展的最主要的自然灾害,旱涝灾害评价在农业防汛抗旱减灾决策中起着至关重要的作用.该文根据旱涝灾害的模糊不确定性,基于可变模糊集理论,确定样本指标对各级标准区间的相对隶属度,以山东省全年旱涝灾害为例,将可变模糊集理论应用于旱涝等级评价中,采用多种参数组合,可变模型(1个线性,3个非线性)进行评价,确定出样本的评价等级,并将其评价结果与模糊综合评价结果进行比较.应用实例表明,该模型计算简便,评价结果可信度高,为旱涝灾害的评价提供了参考.

Assessment model of drought and flood disasters based on variable fuzzy set theory

Drought and flood disasters are the most important factors that restrict the development of agriculture economic. Drought and flood evaluation plays a vital role in the disaster mitigation decision-making. In this paper, according to the fuzzy uncertainty of drought and flood disasters and based on the variable fuzzy set theory, the relative membership degree of the sample index in standard interval of each grade was identified. Taking the drought and flood disasters assessment of Shandong province as an example, authors applied the fuzzy set theory with multi-parameters combination and variable model (one linear model, three non-linear models) to evaluate the disaster. The results confirmed that the sample assessment grades were reasonable. Compared with the other models, the model in this research was simple and reliable, and it provided a reference for drought and flood disasters evaluation.